Sunday, January 19, 2014

rugby for fairies four left

I wrote this for the conference championships but apparently didn't post it...when I couldn't find it on the site, I thought I'd deleted it, only to find it in drafts...I'm such a dumb-ass. The doing the double post was written assuming this one was posted...the world can make of it what it will.

People have found me out. They must think Bokolis has hijacked the wagon and are coming to me for these games. Since they've only asked me for Sunday's games, I look like a champ. What is it- 0-4 on Saturday and 3-0-1 on Sunday? They must have been getting the same games wrong and coming to me for bailouts. You know how those touts- or, whateverthefuck they're called- that would call you (and a thousand other people) up and give half one game and half the other- and repeat the cycle until they are a 5-0 superhero to 32 people and hook them in to pay for services. I've wound up in that position for a few people, but without charging them. I always tell people, this information is worth what you've paid (Bokolis) to obtain it.

BRONCOS (-5.5) over Patriots - I've waffled and, for a number of reasons, mostly because of all the chatter of oh, Tom Brady and the points, blah, blah, blah. They almost got to me. I was tempted to take the Patriots. But, Bokolis won't be fooled.

The things that worry me the most are P. Manning's chicken arm last week in the not-so-cold but wind and that, after pulling many games out of their asses this year, the Pats- see the last two champs- are rounding into form. It is going to be in the mid-to-upper 50s in Denver with manageable wind. I'm going to remember Brady is doing it with smoke and mirrors, taking 6-yard bites of the field. I'm going to remember that the Patriots don't have the defense that the Chargers had. I'm going to bank that Denver will know to pressure him and make him take chances down the field, where he will make mistakes. I'm also going to bank- I have to- that Denver will finish the job this time around, that they will not let go of a big lead as they did the first time around- or even last week.

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over 49ers - Bokolis suggests that, something like the old XFL, Carroll and Harbaugh-A fight it out pre-game at midfield, with the winner's team starting with a 7-0 lead.

I'm figuring that past performance is an indicator of future results here. There is no other way for Bokolis to play this. This was the strongest division in the NFL. The week 2 drubbing is essentially the reason why the Seahawks have this game at home. It is why the Seahawks were fed the Saints at home and why the 49ers were relegated to playing a couple of not-so-strong division winners on the road.

On paper, not much separates these teams. Russell Wilson is considered more accurate, but Bokolis cannot deny Kaepernick's speed to the left (or his baseball slide to avoid contact). Sure, the 49ers' receivers are better, but whereas Kaepernick can't always find them, Wilson will scramble his guys open if he has to. At this point, Lynch is better and more consistent than Gore, but Kaepernick makes up the slack. The 49ers defense can punch with anyone, but the Seahawks defense is on better drugs.

Russell Wilson's numbers look very good. When you consider that the Seahawks receivers are not an impressive lot, it helps reach the conclusion that Wilson does only as much as he has to, when he has to. Dig deeper and you see that the Seahawks have never been threatened this year. When they have had to perform, they have left no doubt.

If they keep Kaepernick in the pocket and prey on his tendency to rely on Crabtree on 3rd down- and bolt if he is not there- and squat on Vernon Davis streaking down and across the middle, they will have opportunities to force mistakes. This is how the Seahawks get you; they will grind and wear on you until you do. They should have more than enough in the tank to hold off and wear down the 49ers.

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