COLTS (-7.5) over Jets - The bottom line is that the Colts still haven't lost a game in which they were trying to win. It's true that they haven't covered all that much and 7 and a hook is a lot of wood to lay. But, history (both NFL and the Jets') tells us that this is where the Jets fall short.
It's more than that. Last time these two played, the Jets didn't score an offensive TD on the Colts' first team. The Colts had quite a few bounces go against them, which is what kept that game close. The only reason P. Manning played that drive in the 3rd Quarter was because the Jets ran the opening kickoff back for a TD. His directive for that drive was to score a TD so that they could say they left with the lead.
The Colts have a further advantage of having gone up against a very similar defense last week. The results were decidedly mixed; 6 good minutes propelled the Colts, even though they produced none of the big plays and couldn't run worth shit. They didn't need another reason to have something to prove. The Jets will have similar issues trying to score against a team with the heart to close the deal.
SAINTS (-3.5) over Vikings - With the exception of the game against the Cowboys, the Saints have performed when the lights were shining brightest. The Vikings were a terror at home, but calling their road performance pedestrian would be kind. They've lost 4 of their last 5 on the road. It's about time this little fairy tale ends.