Monday, March 17, 2014

misMatched

Comment Bokolis made at Barry Ritholtz' The Big Picture regarding a post about Match.com's impressions of the state of love and sex in America.

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Those who turn an NSA or FWB situation into a relationship don't understand the application what finance folks know all too well: NEVER turn a trade into an investment.

Of course, this is about the young'uns, or the benefit/recoil of the 45-60 set, (I should have put most of) who(m) are removed from that arena. Because match.com is more interested in telling you what you want to find than finding you what you want, they didn't ask Bokolis. I'd've told them...

It is very easy to (mis)underestimate how lonely, attention-starved (and horned up) women are. If they want it, they move fast, and often turn what used to be the one-night stand into the hit-it-for-a-week-and-a-half-and-quit-it volcano romance (or less, if the guy knows how to get rid of them). Coincidentally, or not, women (increasingly so for women born in or after, let's put it at 1986) are as hopped up on porn as men.

Many- if not most- are relationship-averse as guys. It's no coincidence that they've also become similarly narcissistic.

Like Broadway Joe might have said, I don't like to date so much as I just like to kind of, you know, run into somethin', man. For that matter, Seinfeld said that 90% of the population is undateable, and he likely sandbagged. If you must date, and a woman checks the phone on a date- which is most of them, fyi- never mind the personal affront, she is either way too flighty or has way too much bullspit going on in her life; the only reason not to run is to gain the experience of dealing with them.
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All Bokolis can tell you is, if you are smart enough not to get married or otherwise bogged down in a closed relationship, stay in shape as you approach, enter and exit middle age, so that you have the opportunity to apply your advantage over the twinks chumps that pass for men these days. Whether you are on the football pitch or in the arena, your leg-up on the competition will have the bird's legs up in the air.

Sunday, February 2, 2014

rugby for fairies...the weed bowl

Seahawks (+2) over Broncos - First off, if not for it being the Bowl, Bokolis would not touch this game. I simply couldn't get a good feel for the match-up, which is to say that it figures to fall right by the number I can't get comfortable with the idea that the Seahawks will disrupt and topple P. Manning and his machine. This is doubly true because it will be about 50-degrees at game time- so much for the cold-weather Super Bowl.

This is...somewhat more than doubly true...because the bananas at ESPN seemingly spent two weeks talking about P. Manning having a chicken arm. Disregard that Bokolis told you about that chicken arm a few posts ago; I told people when he came back that his arm strength looked like Chad Pennington's. Yeah, right- after being on his dick for 19 weeks, now he's got a chicken arm. His arm didn't just go dead, but none of y'all gave a fuck while he was up record numbers. The thing for me is, if those fuckers are emphasizing it as the are, it surely figures to be a non-factor.

Also, I can't believe how the line is all over the place; you can get 3 on the Seahawks- probably where Floyd Mayweather bet the Broncos- and lay 1.5 on the Broncos. You can surely arbitrage yourself into a virtually risk-free shot to hit the middle at +2.

In trying to hash out the match-up, it's no help that Bokolis got no fucking sleep last night and had to go play real football this morning. So, my head is bumpin' right now and I'm writing this with half a mind to sleep through the game. What y'all need to understand about the American version: there were chicks- fit birds, not ones that look like they try catching footballs with their faces- out in the park playing flag football. This is how fairied-out this game has become.

Where was I...oh yeah, Bokolis couldn't decide for the whole fortnight. I've got the Seahawks throwing up a pair of 23s this postseason; the Broncos a 24 and 26...for the simple, if Peyton gets to 24, he wins. Well, that's about where he's going to get. I'll save the bombast about who has to come up huge...the Seahawks aren't going to get to 24 by threes; they may want to engineer a defensive touchdown, just to be sure.

I've been leaning Seahawks, and was waiting for weather conditions and some other nonsense to decide whether to flip. I've just realized that those are the wrong reasons to pick the Broncos. If the Seahawks have fucked shit up for plenty of good QBs this year, they can do it on Peyton as well, regardless of the weather. Further, as I'm sure the world was told, when the offensive machine meets the defensive powerhouse, the defense usually wins...you'll just have to disregard that this defense doesn't lead from its line.

Monday, January 20, 2014

Doing the double?

While P. Manning ensured that the early game went to form, the Seahawks, through a combination of lucking out, benefiting from the opponent's sloppy play and making great plays themselves, turned around that game, pulled it out of the fire, held on...{checks for some more clich├ęs} and also won the game.

Despite the title, Bokolis isn't here to crow about being on the right side of both conference championships. Yes, Bokolis' head bobs above water, going 5-4-1 on here and 7-5-1 in the carbon-based world. Again, the 0-4 on Saturdays has been outstripped by the 5-0-1 on Sundays. This statistical quirk had me scrambling for the data, as did the fact that it felt like too many of these games came in too close to the number.

Here is the rundown with the respective final lines, or the lines Bokolis remembers.

KC 44 - 45 IND (-1.5) difference 0.5 points
NO 26 - 24 PHI (+1.5) difference 3.5 points
SD 27 - 10 CIN (+7.0) difference 24.0 points
SF 23 - 20 GB (-3.0) on the number (at the gun)
NO 15 - 23 SEA (-9.0) difference 1.0 points (back-door cover)
IND 22 - 43 NE (-7.5) difference 13.5 points
SF 23 - 10 CAR (-1.5) difference 11.5 points
SD 17 - 24 DEN (-9.0) difference 2.0 points (late cover)
NE 16 - 26 DEN (-5.5) difference 4.5 points
SF 17 - 23 SEA (-3.5) difference 2.5 points

That's seven out of ten within 5 points of the number. I doubt they have this high of a percentage on any given week during the regular season. Considering how several numbers danced around, it's a little unsettling that these games are holding form to such a degree. I don't know what it is, but it's bothering Bokolis.

So for the Weed Bowl / Blunt Bowl, the line allegedly opened up on Sunday night with the Seahawks laying at least 1.5 - 2.0 and moved steadily before stabilizing at Broncos -1.5 (-2.0 as I type). Given the info above, it's quite likely that a middle was created. Bokolis only caught it at PK, so I'm a little skeptical as to just how much action went off at the opening line.

But I knew it would move towards Denver and was surprised- I guess it could be factoring the weather- that they didn't open as favorites. Everybody is jumping on P. Manning's dick, suddenly unconcerned about his "legacy" now that Tom Brady isn't on the other side. Something to be said about this nonsense- the people making this contention about Peyton having to win another Bowl to secure his legacy among the best QBs in history, their combined record this year was 0-0.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

rugby for fairies 2014...best four left

I wrote this for the conference championships but apparently didn't post it...when I couldn't find it on the site, I thought I'd deleted it, only to find it in drafts...I'm such a dumb-ass. The doing the double post was written assuming this one was posted...the world can make of it what it will.

People have found me out. They must think Bokolis has hijacked the wagon and are coming to me for these games. Since they've only asked me for Sunday's games, I look like a champ. What is it- 0-4 on Saturday and 3-0-1 on Sunday? They must have been getting the same games wrong and coming to me for bailouts. You know how those touts- or, whateverthefuck they're called- that would call you (and a thousand other people) up and give half one game and half the other- and repeat the cycle until they are a 5-0 superhero to 32 people and hook them in to pay for services. I've wound up in that position for a few people, but without charging them. I always tell people, this information is worth what you've paid (Bokolis) to obtain it.

BRONCOS (-5.5) over Patriots - I've waffled and, for a number of reasons, mostly because of all the chatter of oh, Tom Brady and the points, blah, blah, blah. They almost got to me. I was tempted to take the Patriots. But, Bokolis won't be fooled.

The things that worry me the most are P. Manning's chicken arm last week in the not-so-cold but wind and that, after pulling many games out of their asses this year, the Pats- see the last two champs- are rounding into form. It is going to be in the mid-to-upper 50s in Denver with manageable wind. I'm going to remember Brady is doing it with smoke and mirrors, taking 6-yard bites of the field. I'm going to remember that the Patriots don't have the defense that the Chargers had. I'm going to bank that Denver will know to pressure him and make him take chances down the field, where he will make mistakes. I'm also going to bank- I have to- that Denver will finish the job this time around, that they will not let go of a big lead as they did the first time around- or even last week.

SEAHAWKS (-3.5) over 49ers - Bokolis suggests that, something like the old XFL, Carroll and Harbaugh-A fight it out pre-game at midfield, with the winner's team starting with a 7-0 lead.

I'm figuring that past performance is an indicator of future results here. There is no other way for Bokolis to play this. This was the strongest division in the NFL. The week 2 drubbing is essentially the reason why the Seahawks have this game at home. It is why the Seahawks were fed the Saints at home and why the 49ers were relegated to playing a couple of not-so-strong division winners on the road.

On paper, not much separates these teams. Russell Wilson is considered more accurate, but Bokolis cannot deny Kaepernick's speed to the left (or his baseball slide to avoid contact). Sure, the 49ers' receivers are better, but whereas Kaepernick can't always find them, Wilson will scramble his guys open if he has to. At this point, Lynch is better and more consistent than Gore, but Kaepernick makes up the slack. The 49ers defense can punch with anyone, but the Seahawks defense is on better drugs.

Russell Wilson's numbers look very good. When you consider that the Seahawks receivers are not an impressive lot, it helps reach the conclusion that Wilson does only as much as he has to, when he has to. Dig deeper and you see that the Seahawks have never been threatened this year. When they have had to perform, they have left no doubt.

If they keep Kaepernick in the pocket and prey on his tendency to rely on Crabtree on 3rd down- and bolt if he is not there- and squat on Vernon Davis streaking down and across the middle, they will have opportunities to force mistakes. This is how the Seahawks get you; they will grind and wear on you until you do. They should have more than enough in the tank to hold off and wear down the 49ers.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Now boarding the Selig Railroad

In his own mind, Bud Selig has established/preserved/honored his legacy- and, probably did the Yankees the solid they were seeking- by getting rid of Alex Rodriguez for the 2014 MLB season.

aside - How that meshes with the Yankees trying to get out from under the contract is unclear. The Yankees are trying to tag up on the $189M luxury tax threshhold because they are sick of subsidizing the Pirates' owner's empty ski resort. A-Rod's $25M 2014 salary won't count against the $189M, he's still got $61M in the street, which the Yankees don't want to pay. That is another episode.

It's hardly a revelation to many that A-ro(i)d was (once again) on some kind of "performance enhancer." Bokolis didn't need to watch 60 Minutes to smell the laundry being aired out.

I don't care to, either, as I don't necessarily have a moral objection to professional athletes taking drugs, something I've known all along. I had a problem with them overdoing it as they did. But I have a far bigger problem with Selig targeting A-Rod as he has, trying to dole out OJ-style injustice.

None of this passes the smell test. Is Selig really, like Sonny Black said, ...gonna rub my nose...over a rat? We've already seen- with Clemens- that this nonsense would get tossed out of court faster than A-Rod could run out of there...and we KNOW Clemens was full of shit and his accuser had more credibility than A-Rod's accuser. It's one thing to fail a drug test, which, to Bokolis' knowledge, A-Rod hasn't done.

aside- I understand that is name was leaked as one of the 104- this doesn't count because it wasn't an official test and, again, this would get tossed out of court in a minute. A-Rod hasn't failed any tests. We know this because the rat told us that he helped cheat the tests.

Whereas Clemens could mix it up in the courts, being retired and willing to go to any length to plausibly convince himself that we all believe that he was natural, A-Rod is both trying to collect his contract and get on the field while he still can. Selig isn't necessarily trying to take his money- that may be incidental, or not- but he is definitely trying to run out the clock on A-Rod. When so many were scratching their heads at where Selig found the number 211, I had to- painfully, you've got no idea- explain to people- that the number of games doesn't mean anything. All that Selig cares is that A-Rod isn't playing and just wants to tie him up long enough that he won't be able to play any longer.

And, Selig can do this with little or no recourse. Even if A-Rod eventually gets an injunction or even overturned, by the time happens, it would be, at best, a Pyrrhic victory. At 39, with a year away from live pitching and a rotting body, A-Rod would be washed up and Selig will be floating somewhere on his golden parachute.

So, while far too many play the role of the same snot-nosed little asshole who reveled in seeing others get in trouble that they were as kids, they will miss the true tragedy of this soap opera; that your boss can play infinitely more dirty than you and, with a bunch of lawyers, arbitrators and rats in his pocket, if caught in that game, you could never hope to compete.

back-doors and fish hooks

The divisional round played out all too similar to the wild card round for Bokolis. I took a bath on Saturday, only to salvage Sunday.

The Saints pulled the ol' back-door cover. Since Bokolis lost by a half-point on a back-door cover, you might say I was fish-hooked. Not fuckin' cool, bro.

Shit was settled long before the end in the later game, and sent Bokolis running to the window to press the 49ers before I skipped town. I had to lay a point and a half this time.

So, I didn't pay much attention to either Saturday game.

For that matter, Bokolis didn't watch much of Sunday's games- none of the early game and only the beginning and end of the late game. I'm guessing the late game went how I said, for once, with John Fox holding his Broncos to 24 points. I jest, of course; it was P. Manning's chicken arm that held his team to 24 points. His balls had nothing on them. It's just that the Chargers were getting blown off the ball so badly that they couldn't get it together long enough to attack P. Manning's throws.

I'm pretty sure the 49ers won that game on the second goal line stand. Forget about emboldening the 49ers, it had to have emasculated the Panthers to go down a second time and not get into the endzone. Of course, the cookie crumbled the 49ers way on that TD overturn of an incompletion. But, that is usually what happens for the better team.

After all that, it is 3-4-1 on here, 5-5-1 in the carbon-based world. Considering that 3 of the 4 games lost are from forced picks- because I HAD to pick- I don't feel so bad. While Bokolis can't stomach any of the teams left in this year's tournament, I feel that I've got a strong enough conviction on both games- definitely one- so that the picks will not be forced.

Saturday, January 11, 2014

rugby for fairies...divisional round 2013-14

This is a tough time for Bokolis. I either don't like the games, don't like the teams, or both. Hold on, let me shake free of my ideologies...shaking.../shaking There, all better.

BTW, we are using MGM Grand numbers that Bokolis got while advance-scouting pool season.

SEAHAWKS (-8.5) over Saints - The recent trend has been the wildcard winners giving the bye teams all they can handle and then some. In Bokolis' estimation, this happens because the teams off a bye, instead of coming out aggressive to show the perceived superiority that their regular season form has afforded, come out tight and/or playing it close to the vest, giving the (perceived) underdog a chance to settle into the game.

Where Bokolis thought the Eagles were uncharacteristically gun-shy, I don't think Seattle will give New Orleans this chance. We've seen New Orleans lose a playoff game here to a 7-9 team. We've seen them get run just a few weeks ago. We also saw them win in the cold in Philadelphia last week. It should be abundantly clear to the Seahawks that the Saints must be made uncomfortable. As physical as they play, this should not be an issue.

It's still a big damned number- you can get even 9.5 on the Saints around here if you like. That said, the elements and the Seahawks should combine to suitably sink the Saints.

Colts (+7.5) over PATRIOTS - The Colts aren't that good. The Patriots aren't that good. Last week's comeback notwithstanding, it's the Pats that have made the habit of pulling games out of their asses this year. Bokolis will venture that, at best, they will do so again.

49ers (PK) over PANTHERS - Bokolis watched that regular season match-up between the teams. I had the impression that the 49ers played that game with one hand tied behind their figurative back. This time, they will play with both. Most running QBs have a habit of taking their eyes off the field to look for the defensive linemen to find a way out of the pocket/backfield. If they try to re-focus downfield, the first person they find is most often the tight end.

Cam Newton, the talented yet dumb muthafucka that he is, makes it obvious that he does this, and it is why Steve Smith isn't as productive as he should be. When Bokolis teaches PhD-level defense classes, not only is this concept taught but, rather than overplay the TE and tip off the QB, you funnel him into the help and gull the QB into throwing it. I'll get into how you counteract a running QB when someone is willing to pay. For now, know that the 49ers will make this mongoloid pay.

Chargers (+9) over BRONCOS - This was the game that Bokolis jumped on while the line was still at 10, as I correctly guessed that the line would come down. After crushing the Bengals while a touchdown underdog, I figured that the circumstances of the Chargers playoff birth would be forgotten. I was hoping to get 11 or more at the open, but when I saw 10 and less, I jumped. It's shaping up to be relatively nice, if a bit windy, in Denver. If Rivers could function in that crap in Cincinatti, he'll be fine on Sunday. Besides, at this point, the Chargers' defense is markedly better than the Broncos' defense. With John Fox figuring to play this too close to the vest, all this should be enough to balance the scales.