Saturday, January 13, 2018

Rugby for fairies- 2017 Divisional Round

3-1 heading into the divisional round and looking for more of the same, Bokolis spent less than the 10 minutes allotted to ruminating on the Titans-Pats number on ANY playoff thought this week.  It took about 20 minutes to write this- double the thought!

Falcons (-3) over EAGLES - 2.5 is certainly available, but 3 is listed for these purposes.  The factors here are, whether a second road game- on a second coast- will be too taxing on the Falcons or, whether the bye week was enough to install a playbook that Foles can execute.  Bokolis figures that the wind's effects will bog down the Falcons, but will put more pressure on Foles, as the Falcons will stack the box and dare the Eagles to pass if Foles doesn't show he can hang.  The experience and the more certain QB should win out here.

Titans (+13.5) over PATRIOTS - Don't the Patriots typically come out and shell an opponent when scandals surface in the media?  With coordinators running around interviewing for other jobs, this feels like a time when enough people will stop giving a fuck for long enough for the Titans to hang in.

STEELERS (-7) over Jaguars - Typically, when the Steelers get smoked by a team, they are usually keen to take them out the next time they play.  Bokolis also surmises that part of that Jaguars victory earlier this season was down to the relative emphasis placed on the game by both sides and that, this time, with the season on the line, the Steelers will be suitably motivated to put it on the Jags.

Saints (+5) over VIKINGS - When this line opened at 3.5, it seemed light, as Bokolis expected 6.  The Saints defense showed enough lapses against Carolina to warrant an increase in the expected production of the Vikings.  The line indeed has moved toward the expected number.  But this is likely a mistake, as the lapses came with a relatively comfortable lead and the Saints held the only time it was absolutely necessary.  With Brees in a dome and expected to hum along, the Vikings will have to prove that they can handle the stage and not choke away another playoff game.

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