Saturday, January 14, 2017

Rugby for fairies 2016 playoffs divisional round

During this NFL season, Bokolis has relied on the team trends to pick the winners.  Personally, I put more stock in the over/under and was really picky on letting the trends pick a winner against the spread, but I'd let it find me outright winners.  So, before getting into the games, I'm going to tell you what I perceive the trends to say.  These are ratings range from 1-5 ++.

Seahawks:     +++      Over:    ++++
Patriots:         ++        Over:    +
Packers:         +++      Over:    ++
Steelers:         +          Under:  +++

The NFL pulled a fast one and effectively flexed out the Pit-KC game into Sunday night.  On the surface, the reason being given is that a nasty ice storm is coming through Kansas City starting Sunday morning and continuing through the day.  The upshot is that they're going to have us up until midnight on a Sunday night, even if many of us don't have work on Monday.  Since moving a game after scheduling it is unheard of- they didn't even stop the fog bowl- the cynic would conclude that the NFL, still suffering in the ratings, jumped at the chance to move a game to prime time.

In all four cases, we have matchups of teams that played in the regular season.  The NFC matchups were close affairs, while the AFC games were utter thrashings.  Only division champions are left, so these are certainly the big boy games.

Seahawks (+5) over FALCONS - We all remember the regular season matchup- actually, Bokolis doesn't remember shit...oh, wait...Atlanta got hosed on a non-call on pass interference and Seattle snuck out with the victory.  Seattle has done nothing on the read all season, except when they felt an attack of pride at New England.  They didn't score a touchdown in Los Angeles, Tampa Bay or Arizona.  This is consistent with the Seahawks of prior years, but was something forgotten as they made two bowls.

We were told that their offensive line was utter shyte.  But, when it mattered, they walked right through and over the Lions.  The deal is, whether home or away, their offense played according to how Russell Wilson's leg felt.  Similarly, we've been told that, without Earl Thomas III, the secondary has been shaky...unless it hasn't. 

For Atlanta's part, they've been carried by the play of Matt Ryan, who has been better than very good.    They have the nastiest muthafucka in the league at wider receiver.  Even though they lit up almost every team they've played, their play at home has not been as dominant as you would think for a dome team.

These are the big boy games, so Bokolis has got to go with the side that has operated in them.  Regardless, I love the over, enough to add it in here.

PATRIOTS (-16) over Texans - Let Bokolis first say that I can get -15 with no issues.  I'm listing 16 because it seems to be the midpoint between the range of lines and the most common.  I don't have much conviction on this game.  I'm basing it on the first meeting.  Sure, the Texans will show more pride.  That's why the spread isn't 27.  Their defense is better, but their offense is worse.  I think they will struggle to score more than 10 points.  So, even if the Patriots limit themselves to 27, that would be enough.

COWBOYS (-4.5) over Packers - The trends like the Packers and this, for many of the Cowboys, their first rodeo.  You saw what happened to the pretenders last week.  The difference is that Dallas has already beaten Green Bay, as well as other good teams, in their place.  Dallas is also home, as the top offensive line and the true MVP of the league at running back.  But, they seemed to level/tail off the last 5 games.  Are they about to hit the wall?

Green Bay has not had much of a secondary.  Further, they are being overvalued because of last week's result, which was as much a Giants capitulation, marveling at the resurgent Rodgers- he must have stowed away his DreamKiller- and conveniently forgetting the first 25 minutes of that game.

The thing that has impressed Bokolis about Dak is that he quickly learns from his mistakes, sometimes in the next series.  He was impotent against the Giants, but I strongly suspect the cold and windy Jersey night had a lot to do with it.  The climes are pleasant in jerry's world.

Steelers (+1.5) over CHIEFS - Bokolis was needled by my boys, who are breaking my balls for the line head-faking me and going the other way.  So much the better, I say.  I think the Chiefs are cunts.  The two best skill players are on the Steelers.  The question is whether Alex Smith and the 17 points he'll provide, combined with some Ruthlessbuggerer mistakes, are enough to hold off the Steelers.

Unless the Steelers spend the extra time in the barbecue shops, Bokolis is not worried about the time change.  I am worried about the Steelers pedestrian performances on the road this season.  The funniest stat I saw out there was that the Steelers are 6-14 ATS outside the Eastern time zone.  How many games have the Steelers played outside the Eastern time zone this season, you ask?  Zero.

But Andy Reid off a bye, dude?  He's 19-2?  First off, throw out the three in the playoffs.  Coming off a bye in the playoffs means a home game, which you are supposed to win.  Besides, the last playoff bye was in 2004 (pause to lament how fast time marches on that 2004 was that long ago).  He's 3-1 with the Chiefs, if that's what's important.  Andy Reid is also the guy who makes curious calls in the big games, making curious calls and going away from the team's strengths to button up.

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